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Transitions Matrix

J

jensen

Member
Hi

Suppose you are given initial condition P0, and the transition matrix, P representing annual transitions. If you are asked to calculate the outcome in year 2, is it correct to calculate P0*(P^2) or P0*P ? My guess is the P0*(P^2) because P0 is the initial condition and it makes sense cause P0*P represents the outcome in year one. Anyone with comments?
 
Yes that sounds sensible.
It seems that intial is at time 0 here. (Sometimes it is at 1)

If you want the probaility state after n periods you can use P0 * P^n (Linear algebra comes in useful here)
 
Thanks didster.

Reason I asked is that the solutions to that exercise was P0*P, and I went @%#$@#!!!
 
hehe
Maybe they had wording to suggest one time period had passed, or simply a mistake in the question.

Either way it seems like you know what to do, and hopefully the exam is clear and/or sufficient other students are like-minded with their interpretation to get "credit for alternative interpretations"
 
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