Tackling Q's on Monitoring experience

[fischer]

Hi

Is there a specific technique to deal with questions on Monitoring experience? A general structure for answers to these questions? Headings that the examiners like to see?

I have stuck in a structure that I will use when dealing with any question from this section (I set it looking at past papers). Could someone have a look and suggest additions or bits to knock off, please?

For monitoring item of experience "X"

Standard opening statement-
Results of analysis should not be used blindly.
Consider
- circumstances over period (social, political, economic, competition, reg)
- if it is possible to take a view on likely future experience using past data
- trends or random variation

Then talk on data issues (ch30 - Data & ch 31 - Setting assumptions)

Data issues and how they affect "X"
- Credibility and Reliability of data
- Relevance and Judgement required (adjustments - eg inflation)

- Changes in homogenity in data over time
- Changes in experience over time
- Changes in recording patterns over time

- Fluctuations - random, abnormal
- Errors


Finally round-off with

- New business mix and New business volumes and the effect on "X"
- Allowance made for future experience but
- not too prudent bc....
- not too optmistic bc....

 

[Mark Willder]

I'm not sure that there is a single approach that can be taken to monitoring questions - you need to answer what is specifically asked in the question. However, I do think you cover the key elements in your approach.

I'd be tempted to cover the ideas in a slightly different order. Its a bit strange to open up with a comment about the use of the results before you've even discussed the purpose of the investigation. You also need to think about how to subdivide the data (eg by age, sex, smoker status etc in a mortality investigation).

One approach is to structure things in the same way as the headings in the monitoring chapter:

• Reasons for monitoring
• Data
• Process
• Use of results

Another approach is to follow the structure given in the exam tip box on page 18 of Chapter 48.

Best wishes

Mark