survival probablities

Discussion in 'CT5' started by nicolathompson, Nov 20, 2008.

  1. Hi,
    I haven't done CT4 and am having trouble understanding the formula for tqx - the probablilty that a life aged x dies within the next t years. What is the mu in the formula? What does mu(x+s) mean?
     
  2. Zebedee

    Zebedee Member

    Hi

    I'd give serious thought to whether you should continue to study CT5 without having studied CT4 as from memory, the former builds heavily on the latter. Your query here is pretty basic stuff (if you've read CT4) and I suspect you'll have many additional queries as you progress through the course.

    From the profession's website:
    CT5 - Contingencies assumes knowledge of CT1, CT3 and CT4

    As a minimum you'd probably be advised to read through CT4 but if you're doing that then you might has well study it in my opinion. Note all CT exams build this way but I just can't think of a reason why it would make sense to attempt CT5 without having attempted CT4 first (or at the same time).

    The profession's page "Planning a route through the exams" may be helpful:

    http://www.actuaries.org.uk/students/exams/preparing/route_through_exams
     
  3. Hamilton

    Hamilton Member

    Im doing ct5 without ct4

    i read through the first fair few chapter of ct4 first though , its only 2 formula you have to pick up really from ct4 for nPx and nQx oh and some of the markov stuff 3 state model , prob not the best idea to do ct5 first
    When I first opened ct5 i didnt know what was going on but after I read a bit of ct4 , ct5 didnt seem all that bad , hope you remember all that annuity stuff from ct1
    need to be good at maths for ct5 alot of easy "if you know what your doing" integrals but very hard to understand otherwise
    big thing is a "new" discount function ( v^n . nPx ) its everywhere in this course. alot of new notation!!!!!
    mu is instanteous rate of death its written as mu(x + t ) because we are going to be integrating over all value of t (the life is at age x)
    its very similar to delta rate of interest kinda for example
    const delta / const mortality mu case
    v^t = exp( - delta(t) )
    tPx = exp ( - mu (t) )

    if mu wasnt const we would integrate it over all t ( 0 to infinity(or w max age doest matter)) not just multiply by t like in const case

    well hope this helps, probably not , fell free to ask me any question I will be on this forum alot till April as Im doing 4 exams and i need all the help I can get , these are my first actuary exams im taking too so im prob gonna fail miserably

    i personally think ct4 is harder than ct5 so thats why im waiting for sept to do that boyo , will I get 8 cts in 1 year ? go me
     
  4. Thanks!
    Might try to look at a couple of chapters from CT4 then. The reason I was doing CT5 without having done CT4 was that I heard it was slightly easier than CT4 and also the exam timetable works out much better with CT3, which I'm doing. Will make a decision soon which I do. Thanks for your help!
     

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