sources of uncertainty

Discussion in 'SP7' started by DanielZ, Jan 29, 2015.

  1. DanielZ

    DanielZ Member

    Chapter 16 question 9 states - "can you remember the four sources of uncertainty in a reserving model?"

    The answer given is "specification error, selection error, estimation error and process error".

    Chapters 9 and 16 cover specification (model) error, estimation (parameter) error, and process error.

    What is selection error?
     
  2. Darren Michaels

    Darren Michaels ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi DanielZ

    Selection error refers to the selection of data for analysis such that proper randomisation is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analysed.

    It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect.
     

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