Hello,
I'd just like to check my understanding of the SII Risk Margin, BEL and technical provisions.
I'd just like to check my understanding of the SII Risk Margin, BEL and technical provisions.
- BEL is based upon best estimate assumptions, which, by definition, have an equal probability of understating or overstating the liabilities.
- Solvency II pillar 1 requires the use of market-consistent principles.
- BEL itself is not market-consistent. It is the technical provisions (BEL + Risk Margin) that is market consistent. If BEL was market-consistent, then the riskiness of the liabilities would already be incorporated into the calculation (in an efficient market) and a third party wouldn't require additonal compensation for the risks. Hence risk margin would be zero.
- It follows that risk margin is the difference between a market-consistent valuation of the liabilities (technical provisions) and a best-estimate valuation of the liabilities (BEL). However, for practical reasons, risk margin is generally calculated using a cost of capital approach. BEL and risk margin are then added together to obtain the technical provisions.
- For hedgeable cashflows, the value of the technical provisions is equal to the market value of that hedging instrument (Pg 337 in the notes). But does this mean that this is the required approach for calculating risk margin? Could we instead opt to calculate risk margin using a cost of capital approach, as for non-hedgeable cashflows?
- Could some newer types of securities lead to the interpretation of hedgeable/non-hedgeable to change over time? For example, (as I understand it), longevity swaps are a relatively new type of security and could allow insurers to hedge longevity risk.