September 2022

Discussion in 'SA2' started by 1495_sc, Mar 18, 2023.

  1. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    If assets are longer in duration than liabilities, then interest rates falling will mean that assets go up by more than liabilities go up, which basically means the company has made some profit (increased surplus) from this event and it has increased the available capital of the company. Since this event improves the capital position of the company, then it has to hold less required capital (since required capital protects against adverse events).
     
  2. Arush

    Arush Very Active Member

    Thanks.

    1. If the asset duration is increased, although the payout period is increased, doesn't the payout itself reduce so that the PV is still the same? Example, say 5% interest 10-year bond of 1000 would give roughly 50 per year and if the duration is increased to 20-years then the bond interest would halve to 2.5%? My point is that the initial invest of 1000 would remain just the duration is being increased and this might result in lower payouts to match liabilities. Or am I missing something here?

    2. How does the available capital impact the required capital? If I look from a calculation point of the required capital, say of SCR, my understaning is that its derived by stressting the risk driver which usually would be claims. So where does the available capital come into the overall picture here?
     
  3. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    If we are holding 1000 in bonds and we sell them to buy bonds of a longer duration, we will still have (roughly) 1000 in bonds (in reality, a little less due to transaction costs). If our liabilities have a present value of 1000 and everything goes the way it is expected to in that valuation, then we still have enough bonds to meet those liabilities (ignoring the dealing costs).
     
  4. Arush

    Arush Very Active Member

    What about the matching concept though? Although the PV of assets = PV of liab, the expected liab outflow should also be matched by asset at each duration, isn't it? And with longer duration, the asset income available at each duration reduces, isn't it?
     
  5. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    If required capital is determined using a VaR approach (as it is under Solvency II), then required capital for a given stress = {'base' available capital} minus }available capital under that stress}. [This is explained for Solvency II on page 18 of Chapter 10]

    Also note that the risk driver will not always be 'claims' - it will depend on the stress (eg could be investment returns, expenses).
     
  6. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    The differing duration only matters when the stress is applied.
     
  7. ahtohallan

    ahtohallan Keen member

    Hi there,

    When the cost of life cover is charged to the inforce asset shares, the overall CoG increase because the asset share at claim will now be lower than the guarantee at the point of claim. Does this increase in the overall guarantee lead to a further CoG charge to the asset shares?
    I am trying to understand the relationship between the CoG that must be deducted from AS or estate (if AS< guarantee) and the charge to the asset shares for CoG. Please could this be explained?

    Thank you!
     
  8. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Yes, there is an element of circularity here. So the company might set the charge by modelling it as being a variable within the cost of guarantee projection / calculation, then solving to give the charge that equates to the expected guarantee cost within the model (and so the model would automatically take into account the impact that you describe).

    However, bear in mind that what we are talking about here is making a reasonable deduction of charges from asset shares so that they are expected to broadly cover the actual cost of guarantees as and when such guarantees bite, and this will only ever be an approximation - so the company probably wouldn't over-engineer it.
     
    ahtohallan likes this.
  9. 1495_sc

    1495_sc Ton up Member

    Regarding counterparty risk- will this not be higher for Country A as it is reinsuring its liabilities? Or would it be same for both countries? This seems like a very high level comment as I believe that both countries will be exposed to internal default risk.
     
  10. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Yes I agree, I think it is just intended as a high-level comment: if the reinsurance goes ahead, there will be more counterparty risk relating to the operations as a whole (it's effectively a 'group risk' since it is an internal reinsurance arrangement).
     
  11. Arush

    Arush Very Active Member

    Q1. iii) Why interest rate risk is future yields being lower than expected? The increase in BEL would be offset by the increase in assets. I thought it might be there other way around ie rise in future yields would reduce the BEL but reduce the assets more assuming there will be some assets as part of own funds. And in part v) it is mentioned that the interest risk is lower in B because of lower rates, so both statements sound conflicting.

    In general, I am not able to follow the impact of interest rate and credit spread risks on SCR magnitude as well as in what direction the stress should be applied. If possible, a simple example will help.
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2024
  12. Arush

    Arush Very Active Member

    The examiner remark says Q1. "(vi) This was answered best by candidates that recognised that the risk margin only covers non-hedgeable risks and that the reduction in interest rate would reduce the discounted value."

    How would reduction in interest rate reduce the discounted value? is it a typo?
     
  13. Em Francis

    Em Francis ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    It is likely that the duration of the annuity liabilities is longer than that of available assets and so an interest rate fall will increase liabilities by more than the increase in assets.
    As the yield curve is higher under Company B, then the liabilities are lower in value so any stress will be smaller, hence lower risk.
     

Share This Page