It was tight as expected but I just about got in finished right as they announced to stop. I could probably have done with an extra 30 seconds or so to finish whatever I was trying to write at the end but otherwise I think it was a fairly neat fit.
That's really amazing! I found the time to be a bit tight for the amount of reading and number crunching.....
In hindsight (I looked at the paper as it is now available on the Profession's website), I realised there were some part questions I missed and started to go back to when the clock stopped. All in all, I probably answered about 90 percent of the paper.
Did anyone think that the first solution in the examiners report given to question 10, (i) was counterintuitive? It asked to give a transition diagram for the various states mentioned in the question. (A rather ridiculous confusing scenario involving aliens and zombies!) Anyway the solution given gave 4 states: alive, dead from illness, dead from sacrifice and zombie. It seems totally out of keeping with the course notes that a state of being sick can be bypassed and that 2 separate states of being dead can be used. Surely the state of being sick merits a whole state of its own?! It may well be correct technically but it really annoys me that they ask such confusing questions. I actually had both diagrams down in the exam and spent a good few minutes trying to work out which was the correct one. I settled on the second version which includes a sick state. This seemed to me to be far more logical. I know i got full credit for this but its galling that i spent so much time on what was a totally idiotic question which was designed to confuse people. How do they consider this to be genuinely testing peoples ability?
It's a bit counter intuitive, bcoz looking at this question now, the first soln that came to mind is the alternate one. But that said, when I attempted this ques. in the exam, the 1st method that came to my mind was the main soln .. bcoz there were only 10 mins left.... So I had to write whatever strikes first.. Maybe u attempted this question with lot of time left, that's why u over thought abt it.. Anyways, did u clear the exam??
Haha i think you may well be correct!! I have a policy of attempting the hardest questions first when my mind is freshest. Both solutions occurred to me in the exam but i discounted the main one. I ended up getting an FA and i spent too much time on that question and didnt finish the paper!!! It seemed strange to have 2 dead states and no illness state. I think if the state of being sick is mentioned in the question then it should be explicitly given in the diagram. The first solution bundles the states of being sick and healthy into one state - alive. It was quite an ambiguous, confusing question really.
Also, another thing that swayed me towards the "alternative" solution was that 2 dead states would only be necessary if the transition rate from dead to zombie was dependent on how you died. However there is nothing in the question to suggest this so one dead state is sufficient. Why have 2 dead states when it is not necessary?
sorry abt ur near miss mate. hopefully u won't do a arsenal again! and cross the finishing line this time. But do expect tough questions on markov jump this time around.
