September 2008 Q 9

Discussion in 'CT4' started by snerap@gmail.com, Aug 1, 2017.

  1. snerap@gmail.com

    snerap@gmail.com Active Member

    Please explain (iii) (b).
     
  2. Mark Mitchell

    Mark Mitchell Member

    I assume you are looking at the solution in the Examiners Report.

    Delta here is a short period of time.

    Since retirement is compulsory at age 65, anyone who is in state 1 or 2 before age 65 must have transferred to state 4 by (just after) age 65. So tpx11 and tpx12 are 0 for x+t = 65+delta, as no one can remain in states 1 or 2 after 65.

    The second equation relates to those people in state 1 at age x. The probability that they are in state 4 just after age 65 (at time 65+delta) is equal to the probability that they are in states 1 or 2 just before age 65 (at age 65-delta), as everyone in states 1 and 2 moves to state 4 at age 65.
     
  3. snerap@gmail.com

    snerap@gmail.com Active Member

    Thanku so much
     

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