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Sept 2012

O

OzActuary

Member
What did people think of this exam??

I found ~70% of the paper fine but the last 2 questions completely threw me!! I reckon I might have gotten 2/3 marks from the last 2 questions!! So hoping that I did REALLY well in the rest of the paper but wouldn't be overly confident about passing (again!)!
 
I thought that the time series question was kinda out of the box....I completed approx. half of it.
 
hurrendous paper, question 1 was alright though, as was the chain-ladder question, smashed that bit.
 
I thought the first 8 questions were ok. Then got stuck on the time series question. I felt like I knew the topic before the exam, but really struggled with that particular question.

Question 10 was also hard. Probably pick up a couple of marks.

Considering the last two questions are are worth so many marks, it is going to be tough to pass.
 
100% agree with SB1987 it was a really tough paper all round. The time series question was totally out of the box! I must have got a minimum of 11 marks or a maximum of 12 marks on that question.
 
scottythesecond said:
100% agree with SB1987 it was a really tough paper all round. The time series question was totally out of the box! I must have got a minimum of 11 marks or a maximum of 12 marks on that question.
Click to expand...

how many marks was in total for this question? I remember there were four parts to it, right?
 
TIme series qu.

I was really annoyed at the time series question. Having spent a lot of time on this area, I was expecting to be able to answer anything they threw into this paper. But I couldn't even start that question!

Even after the exam, I went back to my notes, and still have no idea what the correct answer was. Can anyone enlighten me?

Rest of the exam was OK, but I think it is 50/50 whether I pass or not...
 
philltee said:
I was really annoyed at the time series question. Having spent a lot of time on this area, I was expecting to be able to answer anything they threw into this paper. But I couldn't even start that question!

Even after the exam, I went back to my notes, and still have no idea what the correct answer was. Can anyone enlighten me?

Rest of the exam was OK, but I think it is 50/50 whether I pass or not...
Click to expand...

I guess the standard approach of yule walker did not apply....
 
Sorry guys realise that it wasn't Time Series and it was the Chain Ladder I was thinking of. Liked that question FTW.
 
I used to mistake them all the time during revision. Glad you did too SB1987!
 
After looking at this video I reckon I got about 52-55 marks. I wonder if that will be enough to pass...
 
Qu 9 (time series question)

If the series is in effect an ARIMA model, with s = 3 (ie the third difference), then doesn't the first bracket need to be (1-B)^3? In the question it is (1-B^3), which was what threw me completely.
 
philltee said:
If the series is in effect an ARIMA model, with s = 3 (ie the third difference), then doesn't the first bracket need to be (1-B)^3? In the question it is (1-B^3), which was what threw me completely.
Click to expand...

They're applying seasonal differencing which is (1 - B^d) rather than the normal differencing for an ARIMA.
 
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