Sept 2008 Q5 - Conditional Moments

Discussion in 'CT3' started by Jammy, Apr 5, 2015.

  1. Jammy

    Jammy Member

    Q - "The number of claims, X, arising on each policy in a certain portfolio depends on another random variable Y. X is considered to follow a poisson distribution wuth mean Y. The variable itself is assumed to have a gamma distribution with parameters (a,b).
    Find expressions for E(X) and E(X^2) using conditional moments"

    In the revision notes, the first line (bold part) has been interepreted as
    X|Y ~ Poi (Y)

    Why? The obvious interpretation seems to be X ~ Poi (Y).
     
  2. John Lee

    John Lee ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Since Y is a random variable we can't say X~Poi(Y) as we don't know what value Y is taking. Hence, we define it as X|Y=y ~ Poi(y) as the Y value is fixed as the value y and so the distribution is now well defined.

    From the point of calculating the answers it makes no difference - but it's just the correct way of doing it.
     

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