Ruin Theory Simulations Practical Excel Question

Discussion in 'CM2' started by mubatsiri, Aug 25, 2021.

  1. mubatsiri

    mubatsiri Member

    The question goes like:
    An insurance company sells contracts which cover the cost of damage to buildings caused by storms and flooding. It models the number of claims per month as a Poisson process with parameter λ =1.5. The company models individual claim amounts Xi by an exponential distribution with mean m = 20,000 .
    You have been provided with a spreadsheet that has ten simulations of the future times between claims and their associated claim amounts. These are shown under the tab named ‘Data’.
    (i) For each of the ten simulations, calculate the time that each claim will occur and hence calculate the number of claims that will occur in the next twelve months.
    (ii) For each of the ten simulations, calculate the aggregate claim amounts after the first claim, the second claim and so on. Hence calculate the total amount of claims that will occur in the next twelve months for each simulation.
    The insurance company has initial surplus of 75,000. It charges premiums continuously at a rate of 34,000 per month.
    (iii) For each of the ten simulations, calculate the surplus after each claim.
    (iv) Based on these ten simulations, calculate the probability that the insurance company is ruined at some point during the year.

    Can someone please breakdown the rationale behind the formulations provided in the model solution. Any other alternative formulations on the question would also be appreaciated. Thank you in advance
     
  2. Steve Hales

    Steve Hales ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi
    I'm afraid that your question is too vague. Any chance you could be more specific? For example, at which point exactly are you having difficulty?
    Thanks
     

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