Relationship between conditional and unconditional expectation

Discussion in 'CT3' started by andy1980, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. andy1980

    andy1980 Member

    E[Y]=E[E[Y/X=x]]

    I always get confused regarding this.
    Random variable for inner "[E]" will be "Y" and outer "[E]" will be X.

    If anyone can help me regarding how to derive this step by step.
     
  2. Calum

    Calum Member

    Just a quick comment - the property you're thinking of is E[Y] = E[E[Y|X]] - this is not equal to E[Y|X=x].

    The derivation is fairly straightforward - WP has the derivation for the discrete case:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_total_expectation#Proof_in_the_discrete_case

    It does the general case in the language of measure theory, but you might find it helpful to work through the continuous case using the discrete case as a guide.
     
  3. andy1980

    andy1980 Member

    Thanks Calum
     

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