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Predicting the Future

S

SpringbokSupporter

Member
Since actuaries are sometimes known as "people who can predict the future", let us see how accurately we can predict our exam results. Once results are out you can post what you expected and what you actually got, and then we can perform a hypothesis test on this statement.
 
I have sat 10 exams (over 5 sittings) and passed 7 of them.

Of my three fails I thought I'd passed two.

Of my seven passes I thought I'd failed two.

60% that leaves me on - not a great prediction rate given that I ought to get 50% geussing randomly. Does that mean I'll make a crap actuary as I can't predict the future very well? :D
 
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