Paramter estimation in time series

Discussion in 'CS2' started by nanaba, Sep 11, 2022.

  1. nanaba

    nanaba Keen member

    Hi,

    In the September 2008, question 10, parameters for an AR(2) model are to be calculated. For parameter a2 we get (r2 - r1^2) / (1-r1^2). Now, my understanding is that this is simply the PACF at lag 2. The sample PACF given in that example is 0.371. However, when recalculating the above formula with the sample ACFs, I get a value of 0.335 for a2. How is this possible?
    Also for instance, the September 2018, question 9 exam used as a solution the fact that b2 = PACF at lag 2.
    Am I missing something at this stage?
    Thanks in advance!
     
  2. Andrew Martin

    Andrew Martin ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi Nanaba

    Well spotted! Looks to me to be a mistake in the given sample numbers. I can't see why the sample PACF at lag 2 wouldn't be 0.335. The given sample PACF at lag 3 also doesn't look correct to me either.

    Hope this helps!
     
    nanaba likes this.
  3. nanaba

    nanaba Keen member

    Much appreciated, thx!
     

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