ASET stated the question background reading from Http://www.the-actuary.org.uk/867848 Link could not be found. Please advise. Thank you! Yan Yan
It's been archived, but you can still find it here: http://www.theactuary.com/archive/old-articles/part-3/financial-economics-3A-stressing-complexity/ Unfortunately it's now just a block of text, so if you were hoping for a picture with one of Andrew's distinctive bow ties then you'll need to look elsewhere.
Incidentally, it looks like some of the number formatting has been lost. I think the sentences below should read as follows: Currently: "Based on normal distributions, we should expect one of these at most once every 1050 years. To get one in a 10-year data period looks like very bad luck. Indeed, to get one of these in the lifetime of the universe — roughly 1010 years — looks like very bad luck." Should be: "Based on normal distributions, we should expect one of these at most once every 10^50 years. To get one in a 10-year data period looks like very bad luck. Indeed, to get one of these in the lifetime of the universe — roughly 10^10 years — looks like very bad luck." The clue to give this one some more thought was that I'm pretty sure the universe is more than 1050 years old!
