Expected Return under Lognormal Model

Discussion in 'CT8' started by jensen, Apr 1, 2008.

  1. jensen

    jensen Member

    I read somewhere (and i'm just typing this out of my head) that for a lognormal model:

    Expected return does not change over time because investment return over non-overlapping periods are assumed to be independent of each other, and therefore the model is consistent with weak EMH as knowing past patterns cannot help you predict future ones

    Then I also read that:

    The lognormal model generates equity prices by directly using past prices, unlike Wilkie's model that involves indirect calculation

    The former claims the model does not depend on past information, but the latter says otherwise. Did I read it correctly?
     
  2. John Potter

    John Potter ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    It is the INCREASE in the log share price that is independent of the past, not the share price itself

    John
     

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