EEV - MCEV - Solvency II EV

Discussion in 'SA2' started by KhoaDNguyen, Feb 28, 2017.

  1. KhoaDNguyen

    KhoaDNguyen Keen member

    This chapter confuses me a lot so I really need some advice on the difference between EEV - MCEV and SII EV:

    1. Why do we have to have extra allowance for Options and Guarantees? Isn't the Cost of Guarantees and Options have been implicitly in the PVIF cashflows? Is the reason we have to have a separate analysis because we need to based the cost of Guarantees and Options of a stochastic model? Or is it because the definition of

    2. According to the core reading, the main difference between an MCEV and a non-MCEV would how you define "cost of holding capital" meant. For MCEV this means agency costs and tax cost (or tax shield) for Shareholders. For a non-market consistent EV this might reflect the cost of holding capital to demonstrate solvency (low investment return on Required capital, the use of high Risk discount rate and prudent risk margin).

    3. Why doesn't EEV have cost of residual non-hedge able risk? Is it includes implicitly in Value in-force?

    4. How does the liquidity premium helps company during dysfunctional market? Is the reason circulates around the increase in RDR will lessen the burden of liabilities? Can you give me an example of what happen on the liability side as well as asset and investment side? I can't work around the the implication that would on our assets, our investment returns and ultimately our PVIF.

    5. How do you justify that PVIF will decrease to be so minimal that EV similar to SII results under SII regime?

    Thank you very much.
     
  2. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi - lots of questions! I will have a go at answering each in turn.

    If the calculation is being done deterministically, then the cost of guarantees and options that it is included in the PVIF cashflows will only represent the intrinsic value. The EEV principles specify explicitly that the calculation also needs to take into account the time value of the option/guarantee, i.e. allowing for the possibility that it might bite in future even if it is not expected to bite on the base assumptions. This is therefore referred to separately. Yes, as you say, the time value would likely need to be determined using a stochastic model (or an equivalent technique which took into account the stochastic nature of the underlying variable, e.g. option pricing approach).

    A non-market consistent embedded value uses the company's own best estimate assumptions for future investment return experience and a discount rate that would include a risk margin. A market consistent embedded value would (typically) use an expected future investment return equal to the risk-free rate, irrespective of the asset type (although there may be some allowance for a liquidity premium), and a discount rate that is also equal to the risk-free rate. So the "cost of required capital" for the non-market consistent EV will reflect the difference between rolling up the required capital at the assumed investment returns and discounting at the (normally higher) risk discount rate. For MCEV, there is no difference between the expected investment return and discount rate, so this approach would not give any lock-in cost of holding the required capital. Instead, the cost of having capital tied up in the business needs to be determined explicitly and will take into account the "frictional costs" that you mention. For a non-market consistent EV, the same frictional costs may also be taken into account - depending on the approach taken by that particular company (bearing in mind that there were no specific instructions under EEV as to how the "cost of required capital" element should be determined).

    Yes, companies would either include explicit margins on their assumptions for mortality, expenses etc or would make allowance for these risks within the risk discount rate used (or a bit of both). Under MCEV, such assumptions would be best estimate and the risk-free rate is used as the discount rate; therefore there needs to be a separate allowance for these risks.

    Under a liquidity crisis, the value of bonds can fall significantly and so the value of assets held by the insurance company will fall. The increased yield spread on these bonds reflects the increased (il)liquidity premium. If companies are permitted to take into account this liquidity premium in their market consistent calculations, this increases the risk-free rate that they can use for projecting the value of assets into the future, giving higher profits. These will be discounted by a higher rate, but the positive impact of having a higher earned investment return assumption (which applies to total assets held to back liabilities) is greater than the negative impact of having a higher discount rate (which applies only to the profits arising). So there will be some balance between lower asset values (in the free surplus component) and higher PVIF, and overall the MCEV should not change materially. If the liquidity premium had not been allowed, the MCEV would have fallen materially due to the fall in value of assets.

    [If companies are allowed to take into account the liquidity premium in the calculation of their liabilities too (as may be the case under Solvency II, via matching/volatility adjustments - where permitted), then the liabilities will reduce in value as a result of being able to discount them using a higher rate. A reduction in liabilities will increase free surplus directly but will reduce PVIF as lower amounts of reserve will be released in the future projections. So there would be a similar effect overall.]

    This justification is covered in Section 5 of Chapter 19 and you might also find it helpful to look at part (i) of Q2 in the April 2015 exam. Basically, PVIF is the present value of the release of future margins in reserves. So if reserves have been calculated on a best estimate basis (as under Solvency II: the BEL) there are no such future margins to release - hence no PVIF. There are some additional complexities around this, in relation to aspects such as liquidity premia, contract boundaries, with profits business, release of risk margin etc (as covered in the course notes) - but this is the underlying principle.

    So if PVIF is zero (or close to zero), then the embedded value is simply free surplus + required capital - cost of holding required capital, which is broadly equivalent to Solvency II "own funds".

    Hope that helps.
     
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  3. KhoaDNguyen

    KhoaDNguyen Keen member

    Thank you so much Lindsay, it is really helpful.
     
  4. Viki2010

    Viki2010 Member

    Question relating to section 3.2 of chapter 19, p.7. The third bullet point of the list of increased disclosures: "the basis of any external review of methodology, assumptions and results" - does it relate to the company stating that it is being reviewed and how it is being reviewed or does it relate to the actual auditor's report?
     
  5. Lynn Birchall

    Lynn Birchall ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi

    It's the first of those.

    In the MCEV Principles (copyright © Stichting CFO Forum Foundation 2008) this is stated as :
    G1.5 A statement should be included to confirm that the methodology, assumptions and results
    have been subject to external review, stating the basis of the external review and by whom it has
    been performed.

    Best wishes
    Lynn
     
  6. wmalik

    wmalik Member

    Hi Lindsay

    The non-MCEV approach above is the APM method of calculating EV?
     
  7. Lynn Birchall

    Lynn Birchall ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi

    The short answer to this is "yes" :)

    For a slightly fuller and more accurate answer, I think it help to separate out 2 aspects:
    1. In general, the approach adopted to an EV can either be market-consistent or non-market-consistent
    2. We can ask a separate question: does the EV comply with a particular, published set of guidelines or principles for EV calculation? The 3 particular sets of EV guidance mentioned in SA2 are APM, EEV, MCEV.

    The APM (traditional) EV approach would use a non-market-consistent approach.

    The MCEV approach would use a market-consistent approach(!)

    The EEV Principles didn't specify, so an EEV could be either market-consistent or not. When the EEV Principles were first introduced, some firms used a market-consistent approach and some didn't. Over time, the majority of firms moved to adopting a market-consistent approach for EEV.

    So, a non-market-consistent EV might be APM, but it could instead be a firm continuing to adopt a non-market-consistent approach to EEV.

    Lynn
     
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  8. wmalik

    wmalik Member

    Hi
    Where the course material talks about analysing EV under SI, how come there is no mention of change in required capital component? Is this change implicit in the change to PVIF?
     
  9. wmalik

    wmalik Member

    With respect to the answer to the second question in the original message:
    "If companies are permitted to take into account this liquidity premium in their market consistent calculations, this increases the risk-free rate that they can use for projecting the value of assets into the future, giving higher profits. These will be discounted by a higher rate, but the positive impact of having a higher earned investment return assumption (which applies to total assets held to back liabilities) is greater than the negative impact of having a higher discount rate (which applies only to the profits arising)."
    I do not understand how there is a net increase in PVIF?
     
  10. KhoaDNguyen

    KhoaDNguyen Keen member

    To the best of my understanding, so we have higher investment return applied to our total asset held to back liabilities.

    The higher discount rate only applies to our profits cashflows (income - outgo).

    Let's say that our discount rate = investment return, our total asset held to back liabilities must be higher than our profit arising every year.

    Hence the net impact must be positive.
     
  11. Viki2010

    Viki2010 Member

    Hi, I have one question on the Principle 10, which states:

    "No smoothing eg. of market values, unrealised gains or investment return is permitted"

    Does that also apply to management of WP business, where smoothing would not be allowed under EEV calculation/valuation?
     
  12. Lynn Birchall

    Lynn Birchall ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi

    Principle 10 doesn't mean that the company can't smooth WP bonuses.

    Principle 10 is about the economic assumptions (eg investment returns, asset prices in the EV). I don't think it constrains how the company manages its WP business.

    The incorporation of WP into EV is picked up by Principle 11. It's not completely prescriptive but the "consistent with the projection assumptions, established company practice and local market practice" would suggest the company could assume it would smooth its WP bonuses in response to volatile returns.

    Best wishes
    Lynn
     
  13. gruhaa

    gruhaa Member

    Can you help me clearing my one confusion that when we say market consistent EEV and non-market consistent EEV, is this related to the projection basis that we use to calculate PVIF. The valuation basis will depend upon the regime under which we are calculating our reserves(SI or SII) .
    Can you also help me understand what is difference between PVFP and PVIF under SII and SI under both, NON-MCEV AND MCEV?
     
  14. gruhaa

    gruhaa Member

    I have a very fundamental question. Like for call opiton, time value of it is the difference between Premium paid for it minus Intrinsic value, whereas intrinsic value is Market price of underlying asset minus strike price. Can you help me understand what will be the time value and intrinsic value of an Guanrantee Annuity Option.? And how it will allow in EV? That would be really aa great help.
     
  15. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi - yes, the market-consistent or non-market-consistent element relates to the projection experience basis, which is at the choice of the insurer. As you say, the valuation basis depends on the regulatory regime.

    PVFP and PVIF refer to the same thing - they are just different ways of referring to the present value of future profits on in-force business (Present Value of Future Profits or Present Value of In-Force).
     
  16. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Just as for a derivative, the intrinsic value of a guaranteed annuity option (or any other embedded guarantee or option) is the extent to which the guarantee or option is currently in the money. So if a GAO would be biting under current conditions (or under best estimate expected future conditions), its intrinsic value is the extent to which the value of the (best estimate) liability under the policy is higher as a result of the "bite". The time value, as for a derivative, is the additional expected cost of the guarantee or option in excess of the intrinsic value. It arises from the fact that there is a positive probability of the guarantee or option biting (or biting more than it currently does, if in-the-money now) due to conditions changing between now and the exercise or guarantee date.

    An embedded value should be reduced by both the intrinsic and time value of the expected cost of the guarantee or option. This is because a guarantee or option 'biting' will be an additional cost to the company, and thus reduce future profits.

    Hope that helps.
     
  17. gruhaa

    gruhaa Member

    Thank Lin for the explanation. I have two follow up questions on your reply:
    1. When you say 'GAO would be biting under current condition' , does that mean, positive present value of the difference between expected market value of guarantee annuity(based on best estimate of maturity value under the embedded GAO), say in 10 year time(at policyholder retirement) minus the best estimated maturity value at retirement? And please correct me if I am wrong, if above present value is positive, then Gao is in the money under current condition.?
     
  18. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Yes - that sounds correct :)
     
  19. gruhaa

    gruhaa Member

    Thanks Lin that is great help :)
     
  20. gruhaa

    gruhaa Member

    HI Lindsay

    Please may I ask another query: VIF is the release of prudence we hold in our reserves. You said that in best estimate, GAO bites(assuming). Then the reserve that is hold against this option today, at valuation date, (say under SI) is prudent and would be sufficient to cover intrinsic value and time value expected at exercise date(as assumed) . And therefore, there will be surplus release at the projection period in which the GAO is expected to exercised. What I mean is reserve that we are holding now for option is more than the loss expected when the option is exercised hence there will be surplus. Hence there will be an increase in PVIF.
    Also can I say whether Gao is like call opition where the underlying asset is annuity, market price is OMO price and strike price is Maturity value?
    What is your view on this
     
  21. Lindsay Smitherman

    Lindsay Smitherman ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Yes, if the reserve held against the future GAO is calculated on a prudent basis, then the release of the prudential margins will be a positive part of the PVIF. However, bear in mind that the reserves are therefore higher than they need to be (by the amount of prudential margin) and so the 'net asset' part of EV will be lower accordingly.

    A guaranteed annuity option is like a swaption (basically, an option on interest rates), because it comes into the money when interest rates change. The strike would be the interest rate at which the guaranteed minimum annuity rate was priced. See Chapter 15 Section 6.5 for further description of this idea. [Alternatively a GAO could be considered to be equivalent to a bond option, where the strike is the price which would generate the required minimum return supporting the guaranteed annuity rate.]
     

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