Distribution of Log normal model for securities

Discussion in 'CM2' started by George Philip, Jul 31, 2022.

  1. George Philip

    George Philip Active Member

    I have been going through chapter 10 and 11 of the Acted material and I have been confused regarding the normal distribution that we consider for the Log normal model.

    For example, in Question 10, September 2014:

    we consider: ln(Su) ~ N[ ln(St) + mu(u-t), sigma^2 (u-t)]

    But in Quesion 5, October 2015 :

    we consider : ln(Su) ~ N[ ln(St) + (mu - 0.5 * sigma^2)(u-t), sigma^2 (u-t)]

    What is the reason for this difference?
     
  2. Actuary_11

    Actuary_11 Member

    The first expression you have written is the log Normal model whose SDE looks like :
    dS_t = S_t*((mu+0.5*sigma^2)*dt + sigma*dW_t)
    Hence ln(Su) ~ N[ ln(St) + mu(u-t), sigma^2 (u-t)]

    But for second expression , it is Geometric Brownian Motion whose SDE looks like :
    dS_t = S_t*(mu*dt + sigma*dW_t)
    Hence ln(Su) ~ N[ ln(St) + (mu - 0.5 * sigma^2)(u-t), sigma^2 (u-t)]

    We can equate both these Brownian motion models with use of parameterization as :
    Let eta = u+0.5*sigma^2
    So , the SDE of lognormal model looks like :
    dS_t = S_t*(eta*dt + sigma*dW_t)
    which is same as the SDE of Geometric Distribution
     

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