Interestec
Keen member
Well that's barely any different to the 52.5 - 64% range I formulated based on logical assumptions.
So you do acknowledge that even if it's barely different it's plausible it could be different?
The flaw in this argument is that you are assuming equal weighting on both groups. But based on historical data and the obvious incentive to clear this paper before it becomes two papers:
- There are ~ 250 re-sitters who were already pass standard students and they will drive the pass rate up
- There are ~ 634 students just taking a swing at this paper and they will drive the pass rate down
So the numbers driving down the pass rate exceed the numbers driving it up by a factor of 2.5.
I just didn't want to assume weighting. How do you know ~634 students were only taking a swing? Why not ~400. This was an unprecedented number of students, doesn't mean that there weren't all taking a swing. Maybe a lot of them tried harder in the effort to not have to do the 2 paper exam come April. Unless you polled every student or were a marker and had at least a subset of the papers or knew if the marks were far below 45% could you know for sure that 100s of unprepared students were turning up for the exam. A high failure rate doesn't necessarily mean that. There could have been 100s that scored in the 50-60% range meaning that they messed up just one question/calculation on the day. Doesn't make the likelihood of another student passing any more real.
We keep going back and forth, but at the end of the day you have by your own admission stated that your figures are based on logical assumptions. That means they've been 'GUESSTIMATED' aka made up based on what you perceive and think is logical. I haven't argued with most of those points and believe they're valid. However you can't just make up numbers and say that this is a definite range. Especially since you admitted in the last post that there's 'barely any difference'. You have allowed that there could be a difference, so why try assign a numerical value at all?