Hi, I'm having some trouble obtaining the dependent probabilities from the independent probabilities. I obtain meu from each independent prob by meu=-ln(1-q_x) Then I use the dependent prob formula. However the numbers I obtain is slightly different e.g I get the following for the dependent prob of death for ages 55,56,57: 0.00473, 0.00593,0.00614 Which is different from the answer given. Would you be able to explain how the answers in the examiner report are obtained? Thanks!
Hi Laura, I haven't managed to reconcile your answers. You can get away with a couple of approaches here. Either you multiply the qxs by 110% or the forces of mortality. With the former you would calculate mu55 as -ln(1-q55*1.1). Your dependent probability of death would then be: mu55 / (mu55 + 0.04 + 0.1) * (1 - exp(-mu55 + 0.04 + 0.1) With the latter you calculate mu as -ln(1-q55) and then multiply the resulting force by 110% to get mu55(*). This leads to a dependent probability of death of: mu55(*) / (mu55(*) + 0.04 + 0.1) * (1 - exp(-mu55(*) + 0.04 + 0.1). If this doesn't help, perhaps you could provide me with some more detailed calculations so I could see where things might have gone wrong. Thanks Joe
Hi Joe, I've just tried to calculate and managed to obtain the answers in the report - might have made some calculation mistakes somewhere previously. Thanks Joe!