CT5 Sep 2003 Question 14

Discussion in 'CT5' started by Sunil Sanga, Apr 12, 2017.

Tags:
  1. Sunil Sanga

    Sunil Sanga Member

    Please someone help me to understand the first part of this question.
    In detailed explanation it is mentioned that for first row one payment is received. And for this payment it should go state 1 from 0 and then to state 3 from 1.
    Prob. Are given:
    0.87 0.1 0 0.03
    0 0.6 0.3 0.1
    0. 0. 0.6. 0.4
    0. 0. 0. 1

    So for PV
    30+0+0+0= 30

    It goes from state 0 to state 1 and receive payment 30 and that have probability 0.1
    But if life goes from state 1 to state 3 , so life doesn't get any benfit.
    And same goes for if life moves from state 0 to 3 and 2 to state 3
    So in rest 3 cases life receive 0 benefit.

    Now second
    30+30+0+0
    If life moves from 0 to 1 , gets benefit 30 with 0.1 prob
    If life moves from state 2 to 1 gets = 30 with 0.6 prob
    If life moves from 0 to 3 = 0
    Same for if life 2to 3=0

    In 3rd row
    30+30+30+0
    If it moves 0to1 = 30 with prob 0.1
    For 1to3 =30 with prob 0.6
    For 2to 3 =30 with prob 0.6
    For 0 to 3 =0

    4th line doesn't come in this way

    I know this is little thing i might missing here or might be i missing entire concept of this question.

    Please review and help if possible
     

Share This Page