Contingent Assurances

Discussion in 'CT5' started by r_v.s, Feb 22, 2014.

  1. r_v.s

    r_v.s Member

    Would you plz explain the expression for a contingent assurance Ax1y (benefit pd on death of x, if x dies first) when payment is made at the end of year of death?
    Isnt it the summation over t of the product of
    1) v^t+1
    2) tpxy
    3) qx+t? (it is qx+t:y+t, with a one over the x+t in the CT notes)
    What does the term in CT5, 2012 page 424 mean?
     
  2. John Potter

    John Potter ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi there,

    You're nearly there with your product except that in 3), qx+t wouldn't quite cover it because it's still possible for y to die before x.

    We can't write qx+t py+t either as we don't need y to live to the end of the year that x dies.

    This is why we have the term that we do,

    John
     
  3. r_v.s

    r_v.s Member

    status x1y?

    So, in effect the status x1y means that both x and y must die within the same year that x dies, and in that year x dies before y?
     
  4. John Potter

    John Potter ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    No

    "We can't write qx+t py+t either as we don't need y to live to the end of the year that x dies"

    WE DON'T NEED Y TO LIVE - I'm not saying that we have to kill him or keep him alive after x dies. y just needs to be alive when x dies

    John
     
  5. Delvesy888

    Delvesy888 Member

    Is it possible to derive this expression from first principles? I.e. using double summation. I am having trouble doing this even though I understand the expression. My attempt:

    A_x1y = Sum_{t=0 to inf}Sum_{s=t to inf} v^(t+1)*P(K_x = t, K_y = s)

    Then P(K_x = t, K_y = s) = P(K_x = t)*P(K_y = s) by independence.

    Then Sum{s=t to inf} P(K_y = s) = tpy

    Putting that in the first formula will give:

    A_x1y = Sum_{t=0 to inf} v^(t+1)*tpxy*qx+t

    which I know isn't right.

    Any help is greatly appreciated.
     
  6. Delvesy888

    Delvesy888 Member

    Is anybody able to assist with this? It would help with deriving other annuities/assurances with payments made at the end of year of death - instead of being able to derive them intuitively.

    Many thanks.
     
  7. John Potter

    John Potter ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi Delvesy,

    Your derivation from first principles is a very good attempt but it doesn't quite work, again.

    We need y to be alive at the time of x's death. You'd think that you could just stick a py+t in there but that doesn't do it either because we don't need y to be alive at the end of the year in which x dies.

    John
     
  8. Is there a way to do those without needing intuitive guesstimation?
    I know that nqx1y = integrate{t=0 to inf} integrate{t=0 to inf} tpx(mu(x+t)) spy(mu(s+y)) ds dt
    But now how do I translate this type of thinking into this question:
    Two lives aged x and y take out a policy that will pay out £15,000 on the death of (x)
    provided that ( y) has died at least 5 years earlier and no more than 15 years earlier.
    Where the random variable is Z = 0 for Ty > Tx and v^Tx for Ty +15 >= Tx > Ty+5.
     

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