Commission excluded in expense experience

"Commission (if applicable) is normally excluded from the expenses being analysed on the basis that its format is known and can be allowed for explicitly. While we haven’t mentioned this before, it should be obvious, as this is one of the few items of future experience which is known with certainty."

In case of renewal commission, it will only be paid if the premium is received. Then why are we saying that commission for future is known with certainty?​

 

Although I might be wrong too but please correct me if wrong, but I think this means that Commissions will be accounted for in the premium and if the premium is paid, commission is paid out of the said premium, otherwise not. So commissions will only be made due when premiums are paid and then will be paid out of the premium only. The payment of commissions will be dependent on receipt of premium which is calculated with the commissions included in the calculation, hence no explicit analysis is required for them.

 

This is because commission is always expressed as a percentage of premium so the cost is known. Unlike other expenses where it's not clear cut.