CM2 April 2018 Q3 (ii)

Discussion in 'CM2' started by Trainee_Act, Mar 23, 2022.

  1. Trainee_Act

    Trainee_Act Member

    Exam Question
    The value of an investment asset follows the equation A(t) = exp(Bt), where Bt follows standard Brownian motion.
    (ii) Calculate the expected value of this investment at time 5. [2]

    Examiner's Report
    A(0) = exp(0) = 1, so the students buys 1,000 units of the asset.
    E[A(5)] = exp(0.5*12 *5) = 12.182
    So the expected value of the investment is $12,182

    Can someone explain the middle line of the answer above? I am not sure where the 0.5, 12 & 5 come from.

    Any assistance here would be appreciated.
     
    Bill SD likes this.
  2. AaronD

    AaronD Active Member

    Hi,

    I think this is what is happening.

    B(t) ~ N(0, 1t)
    B(5) ~ N(0, 5)
    => A(t) ~ logN(0, 1t)


    E(A(t)) = exp(mu + 1/2 sigma^2 * t)
    E(A(t)) = exp(0 + 1/2 1^2 * t)
    E(A(5)) = exp(1/2 1^2 * 5)
    = 12.182
     
    Bill SD likes this.

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