Clarification of points (Chapter 13 &15)

Discussion in 'SP1' started by Trevor, May 14, 2021.

  1. Trevor

    Trevor Ton up Member

    Hi, I am trying to understand a few points from the chapters around assumption setting:

    In chapter 13, section 2.1, it says pricing assumptions are bock rated rather than experience rated.
    I understand what is experience rating, the assumption depends on past experience, however,I don't quite understand "book rating".
    Question: What does “book rating” mean?

    Also in chapter 15, section 2.2, it says PMI benefit is not just a function of medical inflation , but includes:
    1. Medical treatment protocols
    2. Charging structures
    3. Age profile of the portfolio
    Question: I thought “medical inflation” is already an umbrella term, that already incorporates all the elements above. If I am wrong, what does medical inflation include? The glossary already defines medical inflation to include cost of medical treatment. So it looks like the bullet points are overlapping.

    Regarding the 3rd point above (Age profile). As mentioned in the ActEd text, the premium already increased as age progresses (due to increased morbidity rate).
    Question: Why do we add another layer of age differential to “double inflate” the benefit?
    Is this point actually saying not only the morbidity rate increases, but the absolute/monetary amount of treatment costs will increase too? ie: not only probability increases, severity too.
     
  2. Mark Willder

    Mark Willder ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi Trevor

    I'll answer your questions in separate posts.

    The difference between book rating and experience rating is explained further in Chapter 18 when we look at pricing group contracts. The key idea is whether the premiums are based on the experience of lots of policyholders or of a single policyholder (this policyholder might be an individual or a group such as an employer).

    Experience rating looks at the past experience of the policyholder. So we might look at the sickness experience of a particular employer over the past year to calculate the burning cost. The burning cost ignores all other sources of data, eg experience from other group schemes. The book rate is the rate to charge calculated from all sources of past experience. We then calculate the group premium by giving a credibility weighting (Z) to the burning cost and weighting (1-Z) to the book rate.

    For individual business we generally do not use experience rating (although things like NCD might introduce an element of experience rating to some extent). So we just use the book rate. This will have been calculated by looking at past experience of lots of people, ie we are not just looking at the sickness experience of one individual (as this wouldn't be very helpful if the policyholder had never been sick).

    Best wishes

    Mark
     
  3. Mark Willder

    Mark Willder ActEd Tutor Staff Member

     
  4. Mark Willder

    Mark Willder ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi Trevor

    I agree that the Core Reading isn't totally clear here, but it's not suggesting any form of double counting. We just need to be aware that as people get older, their probability of claiming goes up, but claim amounts might also increase as it might cost more to treat an older person than a younger person.

    Best wishes

    Mark
     

Share This Page