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Chap17- Margins on the assumptions

Discussion in 'SP2' started by deepansh, Feb 13, 2019.

  1. deepansh

    deepansh Member

    Hi all,

    It is mentioned in the CMP that when a formula model is used to price a contract, we can't adjust the risk through the risk element of the risk discount rate.

    I don't get this.
    My understanding is we can adjust for the risk by increasing the risk discount rate and use that to calculate EPV of benefits, expenses and premiums.

    Can anyone please help?

    Regards,
    Deepansh
     
    deepansh, Feb 13, 2019
    #1
  2. Lynn Birchall

    Lynn Birchall ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi Deepansh

    If we're using a formula approach (ie an equation of value along the lines EPV(premiums) = EPV(benefits) + EPV(expenses)) then increasing the interest rate at which its evaluated will reduce the premium calculated. Essentially, we're assuming we'll earn a higher rate of return on our assets.

    Of course this is the opposite effect to what we want a risk adjustment to achieve, which is why the suggested approach with a formula is the application of margins to other assumptions.

    Best wishes
    Lynn
     
    Lynn Birchall, Feb 14, 2019
    #2
  3. deepansh

    deepansh Member

    Thank you Lynn! I understand.

    Just to confirm my understanding, under the cashflow approach, we can use a higher risk discount rate as we will be targetting a particular profit criterion (say NPV of X), so if we are increasing the risk discount rate our PV of cashflows will fall but to get the profit criterion we need to increase the premiums.

    Is my understanding correct?

    Regards,
    Deepansh
     
    deepansh, Feb 14, 2019
    #3
    Lynn Birchall likes this.
  4. Lynn Birchall

    Lynn Birchall ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Yes, sounds good to me!
     
    Lynn Birchall, Feb 14, 2019
    #4
  5. deepansh

    deepansh Member

    Thank you Lynn for your prompt response!
     
    deepansh, Feb 14, 2019
    #5

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