Dear team, Please inform if I am wrong In 2 simple decremental model chap 5 page 40 . The formula used is (mew 01/mew 01+ mew 02) multiplied by 1 minus lamda part. The first part of formula is the probability from moving from active to dead in time period t. The second part 1-lamda was used as staying in same state for time period t is e^lamda , as it's moving from active to dead so 1 minus lamb is used . Pl clarify Regards Suresh sharma
The interpretation of this probability is given right at the bottom of page 40. The 1 - exp(-(mew01+mew02)t) part is the probability of leaving the active state in the time period of length t. We know this because (as you say) exp(-(mew01+mew02)t) is the probability of staying in the active state for a time period of length t. The fraction is "the conditional probability of each decrement having occurred, given that one of them has occurred". In other words, for example, mew01/(mew01+mew02) is the probability that we transition to the dead state, given that we leave the active state. (The fraction basically just tells us how powerful the force of transition to the dead state is compared to the overall force acting on the life in the active state.)
