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Balducci Assumption

R

Rebecca.Thomas

Member
I'm looking at the solution to Oct 2010, Q3.iii which (in part) says:
"The Balducci assumption implies that the force of mortality is decreasing between age x and age x+1, which means that mortality is heaver in the first half of the year than it is in the second half"

My query is, under what circumstances is this a suitable assumption? It seems more logical for mortatlity to increase between age x and x+1 as the person ages? :confused:
 
Hi Rebecca

The force of mortality decreases in late teenage years/early twenties, so the Balducci assumption may be more appropriate there. Look at the values for mu in the AM92 tables on page 80 of the yellow Tables.

This effect is called the "accident hump", which is described in CT5. Basically, mortality comes to a small peak around 17/18/19, and then decreases. The peak is usually associated with deaths from car accidents of inexperienced drivers, and drug/alcohol-related deaths.
 
Thanks - this thought came to me after posting, but I wasn't sure I was correct (a specifically named assumption for a small proportion of cases seemed odd) so it's nice to have confirmation :)
 
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