April 2016 Q1 VaR

Discussion in 'CT8' started by Alibaba, Apr 18, 2017.

  1. Alibaba

    Alibaba Member

    The first question on this paper has thrown me - VaR with confidence p is, in the notes, the maximum loss where there is 1-p probability of a greater loss. The solutions in this question seem to have it that p is the probability of a greater loss. Would you get marked down for assuming that the VaR with confidence 10% is the maximum loss with 90% chance of a greater loss?
     
  2. Alibaba

    Alibaba Member

    That should be September 2016 in the title**
     
  3. Mark Mitchell

    Mark Mitchell Member

    Yes - this is apparently inconsistent with the definition of VaR given in Core Reading, although the definition given only says the degree of confidence "is normally" expressed as 1 - p.

    The Examiners report makes no reference to your alternative, so we can't know whether you would have been marked down - though I'd hope the examiners would be lenient.

    Note that ordinarily the VaR is about what might happen in the worst small % of cases, so I'd tend to that interpretation.
     
  4. Alibaba

    Alibaba Member

    I see... that's helpful anyway, thanks for getting back before the exam!
     

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