April 2010: Q9 (v)

Discussion in 'SP7' started by jensen, Mar 11, 2012.

  1. jensen

    jensen Member

    Hi

    When we collapse the triangle using the Sept diagonals, how come we include the Q4 figures from development month 12 and 24?

    On a separate note, how do we convert the quarterly triangle to an annual one? I tried summing the 2007 accident years month 12 figures as C_11, month 24 as C_12, but not sure how to calculate C_13. What did I miss?
     
    jensen, Mar 11, 2012
    #1
  2. Katherine Young

    Katherine Young ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi Jensen,

    I want you try to following:

    1) Write out the triangle leaving plenty of space between rows.
    2) Immediately below each data point in the triangle, write the "as at" date.

    For example, for Q4 2007 you should write:
    695, 4857, 9687, 14698, 18455 ...
    Dec07 Mar08 Jun08 Sep08 Dec08 ... etc

    And for Q1 2008 you should write:
    985, 6975, 11666, 15630, 17495, ...
    Mar08 Jun08 Sep08 Dec08 Mar08 ... etc

    The triangle of September diagonals will therefore need to include all figures which you have labelled as September.

    3) Finally, convert the origin periods into years by summing the September diagonals into their respective origin years. For example, C13 should be 25,096 + 24,912 + 30,701+ 35,504 =116,213
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2012
    Katherine Young, Mar 11, 2012
    #2
  3. jensen

    jensen Member

    That made sense now. Thanks!
     
    jensen, Mar 12, 2012
    #3
  4. zuglubuglu

    zuglubuglu Member

    ivb

    Could someone clarify the second option.

    From what I have understood it involves projecting the total 9 months of claims in 2009 to end of 2009 by comparing to past estimates.

    Is this correct?
     
    zuglubuglu, Apr 8, 2015
    #4
  5. Darren Michaels

    Darren Michaels ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    You calculate an annual triangle at each December as normal up to the end of 2008 only and for the time being discard the data post 31 December 2008.

    You project the triangle as normal and then compare the estimated claims during 2009 from your projections with the actual claims that you know about during the first 9 months of 2009 and adjust your estimates in some way if required.
     
    Darren Michaels, Apr 13, 2015
    #5

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