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April 2009

A lot of bookwork questions, and nothing seemed particularly complicated. I mucked up a few of them but wasn't expecting to do very well anyway.
 
Grand

it was ok i felt
 
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hmmm....

Is it just me who found that paper impossible?!? I thought that was by far the the hardest CT6 paper over the last few years! I studied really really hard for that exam and was very confident going in. I got over 80% in my mocks (Apr 08 & Sept 08) but found that exam impossible! Please tell me I'm not the only one??

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
 
Overall I found the paper to be OK.

I was stumped by the minimax question though - None of the options seemed to be dominated?

Was annoyed I couldn't get the Gamma as an Exponential question out under exam pressure ><

Time Series - took a stab but not really confident there.

Rest of the paper was quite decent I thought.

I wonder what kind of raw mark you would need to pass this subject?
 
emmm

think no one dominated in the minimax question
 
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actuaryre said:
How did people find it?

I felt I was pushed for time but it didn't really have any nasty surprises. Was it just me or were there more than 100 marks up for offer?
Click to expand...

Here's my notes on the questions and how the marks were divided up:

1. Liability insurance - principle characteristic & 4 distinct types [4]
2.Gamma GLM - natural parameter and scale parameter [3], canonincal link [1]
3.Bayes - Beta posterior for theta - 3 policies, 9 claims [2], derive estimator under all or nothing loss [4]
4. Decision theory - complete table [5], any dominated? [2], minimax [1]. i thought no insurance at all was dominated by proportional insurance
5. Sum of 3 compound poissons, individ claim distb exp (1/4); prove E=E[E(S/lambda)] [2], show E[S/lambda]=4lambda and var[S/lambda]=32lambda [4], calc E [2], calc var [2].
6. Run off triangle ACPC [10]
7.Monte Carlo acceptance-rejection - derive algorithm [5], proportion accepted [1], is it more efficient to use uniform? [4]
8. Ruin theory - explain what U(t) is [2], explain phi(U,t) and phi sub h (U,t) [2], compare 3 pairs [6]
9.XOL insurance, M=1+k - find E[X] and var[X] and simplify expressions [5], find p(S>700) given lambda=500 and N distb Poi(lambda)
10. Time series - show not stationary [3], show differenced X is stationary using autocovariance function of Y [7], show differenced process is invertible and bigger variance than Y [5]
11. NCD criminal offence question - min thresholds [4], p(claim) [5], stationary proportions [7]

I thought it was a fair paper - topics as expected given syllabus and nothing deeply horribly unattemptable. But i was seriously pressed for time and not sure i managed to do enough to scrape through.

Best of luck to all
 
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