April 2007

It was OK, I guess, though I didn't like the simulation question, nor the time series one (but that could be due to poor preparation on those topics!!!)

 

hard paper
i was done withing a few minutes.

I might be successful in lowering the pass mark this time.

All the best.

 

i thought the time series was fairly straight forward, coulda been much worse

i found the simluation (Q6) and reinsurance (Q7 )

any ideas for Q7, i wrote hardly nothing for that

 

Q7: I tried, but didn't get a sensible answer for SI (got 3.18, or something like that)

Hope I got the last question right, it flowed through OK. Hmm maybe I shouldn't discuss this paper anymore just in case I find out how much I got wrong! lol

 

I thought it was a hard paper too

The Q7 I worked out the

E = E[N]E[X] then used that S = SR + SI .... and went from there

tricky paper

cointegrated time series urgh

 

yep, this is what I did

 

Game Theory Question

Does anyone remember the game theory question - the one on the casino deciding whether to run cards, dice, or slot-machines?

I seem to remember there being a dominant strategy for the company, which didn't seem right, since the question asked for minimax and bayes solutions.

I don't suppose it matters now, but I was just wondering if I got something really wrong.

Cheers,



Sam

 

I remembered it yeah, one of them was lower for all 3 i think, but it didnt ask you to discard it, it would never have been chosed anyway

 

I seem to remember the same strategy being the best option in all three scenarios - meaning that we didn't need the minimanx or bayes approaches to find the best strategy. That's what made me think I got something wrong - probably just a calculator error when I was working out the pay-offs.

 

I didn't check for dominance... but I got a different answer for the Bayes solution than I did for the minimax

 

Time series

the time series question was much tricker this year. what happened to the simple 6 marker working with AR or MA!!