hi, i want to ask this question because: (1) I want to plan my career (2) It is one of the popular interview questions any idea about our actuarial industry in the future?
There are going to be some spectacular government bond market failures in the next few years. This will force up interest rates, which will give rise to a much larger liquidation process than has occured in the last two years. As families and businesses pay back their loans or default on those they can not afford, they will ultimately find they have much lower debt levels. With less loans to service and more cash in the bank, there will be less need for risk mitigation and therefore less work for actuaries to do. I believe the short to medium term is going to be poor for the actuarial profession, but I believe the long term will be goodish, for reasons I'm not going into here!
this is a tough question. if i answer, I would say health: introduce exclusion on swiss flu. life: introduce risk-adjusted produce to firms - the better the risk control the higher the bonus GI: introduce more types of products. Pension: more DB schemes transfer to DC scheme. Investment: more focus on risk-adjusted return.
What about the impact of Solvency II? The impact that ERM will have on opening new fields for actuaries, eg. banking? Any ideas that anyone have?
