September 2018

Discussion in 'CT4' started by AaronD, Sep 25, 2018.

  1. AaronD

    AaronD Active Member

    What were your thoughts on the paper?
     
  2. Hi

    I struggled with the 12th question. I almost did not attempt it except for some 2/3 marks. Overall, for me, the paper was lengthy and required more time. I also spent time thinking a bit to answer the 4th question which asked for information source for recommending parameters for a model.

    Rest of the paper was fairly okay. Just hope to clear this one. I am done with CT6 and am hoping to clear CT4. I'm in no mood to go back and take the new paper/syllabus which combines both.
     
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  3. AaronD

    AaronD Active Member

    Hey,

    I thought the first couple of questions were fine, with q10 and 12 probably being my worse answered. Found I spent way too much time on the fist few questions that weren't worth many marks compared to the last 3 questions which accounted over 30 marks.

    I answered Question 12 poorly, left out the last 2 parts almost completely due to time contrarians and pretty sure my transition matrix was wrong for the first part using only 4 states rather than 5 but hoping to pick up some marks part ii.

    Have CT6 also, so would be nice not to have to resit the new exam
     
  4. Calm

    Calm Ton up Member

    I ran out of time on the last question that I did (the one with the modified Trapezium rule); I have a tendency to rarely complete the questions in the same order as that given in the paper.

    Also had some problem with the partial likelihood function in question 4, skipped that one. Otherwise I think it went fine.

    Hopefully I pass this paper and CT3.
     
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  5. JoeKing

    JoeKing Member

    I can't understand why the exam paper was so long!!! I believe there were too many questions to complete in the time given. It was much worse than April sitting for time pressure and the last question took a long time to read through and understand fully and was non standard.

    Despite knowing the topics very well for questions 11 and 12 I felt like I let myself down and wasn't able to set up the transition matrix well.

    I guess the pass mark will be a good deal lower as a consequence from April as the difficulty was much higher with time pressure this time. I guess the standard of candidates will be much stronger now too after the high failure rate in April and last chance saloon nature of this sitting. I expect that the pass rate should be closer to 60%-70% and hopefully we will all get the pass this time :)
     
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  6. JoeKing

    JoeKing Member

    ps I wonder if they will state that there was no evidence of time pressure in the exam report ;)
     
  7. Preshen Naidu

    Preshen Naidu Member

    Definitely a bit better than April 2018. Although didn’t finish as well. Q5 and Q12 posed an issue.

    Although I struggled a bit on Q4 where they asked for information sources. Any idea what that was?

    But otherwise, I hope the pass mark is lower than 60. Fingers crossed.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 4, 2018
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  8. GemmaHayes

    GemmaHayes Member

    That question stumped me on the day too. I think they might have been looking for internal sources such as data on current products sold, similar products sold and for external sources maybe reinsurers, government statistics, consultants, industry market benchmarks, overseas data etc.

    I thought that many questions were very doable but they required more time to complete fully. It seemed they had a fair spread of questions but just too many too long a paper to read and “answer the question asked”.

    I think the overall standard of paper was much harder than April as there were no simple Markov Chain questions or KM/NA questions to get quick marks. Hopefully the pass rate will be a lot higher than April’s blood bath! I hope the pass mark is around the 55 level and then I may have a chance to pass. I guess a lot of candidates will cluster around that number.

    It’s very disappointing that they set such a time pressured exam and we don’t have the chance to repeat if we are a mark or too off as I already cleared CT6 also.
     
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  9. Preshen Naidu

    Preshen Naidu Member

    I also said similar things. Basically any source where data can be obtained.

    I definitely agree! There was a lot to focus on and to write. And there was so time to double check. And I hope the pass mark is around 55. We will have a chance.

    The hardest thing right now, is knowing whether you are going get this exemption, especially if CT6 went well. Everyday until then, is going to be a nightmare.
     
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  10. Calm

    Calm Ton up Member

    Nope, for me the nightmare continues into the next semester in NTU, because if I pass this then fail to get the CT6 exemption from NTU then CS2 will need to be taken regardless.
     
  11. wzlee12

    wzlee12 Member

    I find this paper a very interesting one. Quite a decent one in fact. Especially Q12. The only bad thing here is I realized my transition matrix for Q12 is wrong after the exam. (Only got wrong for the first row). Hopefully they can do error carry forward for my workings. Also, I left Q4 blank. XD

    For Q12 you need a little thinking. If you get it, it is a piece of cake. Also, the transition matrix is not needed in parts (iii) and (iv) (But will be easier if you use it.). Even part (iv) is quite easy as well if you can link the number of dead bodies in the room at the same time if the person is not working that day. Hopefully I can pass this....><
     
  12. Does anyone know when the exam results will be released?
     
  13. wzlee12

    wzlee12 Member

    29/11/2018 6pm UK time
     
  14. GemmaHayes

    GemmaHayes Member

    I’m happy the paper went well for you wzlee12. I agree that question 12 wasn’t difficult. I could solve this too now after the fact with a little time.

    On the day however with time pressure, I feel like I did myself a disservice on this one. I felt the paper was too long to read with the details of the questions hidden in long paragraphs and all the answers required a good deal of detail as there were no simple list questions. I regret not completing the numerical questions firstly as it seems that these would have been the easier marks to acquire.

    I’d love another attempt at this exam if things go badly on results night. Are ye aware of any way around doing this before they retire the CT series for UK students? It wouldn’t require much more work if I had to resit this but it’s going to require a lot more work to sit a brand-new exam, learn R and sit a double exam and pay for new materials! Please let me know if there’s any potential options as it’s a stressful wait until results night if not ☹
     
  15. almost_there

    almost_there Member

    The time pressure issues have been going on for so long in so many of these exams that I must wonder if it's by design. I felt I had passed some exams and others hadn't just because I had written quicker than them to finish the paper. Time pressure is the most common comment I heard after an exam yet so many examiners' reports claim there was no evidence of an issue. I don't know anyone ever asked by IFoA to provide feedback on time pressure so I wonder how the examiner would actually know before making such a comment.
     
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  16. GemmaHayes

    GemmaHayes Member

    I agree entirely. However, I feel particularly cheated that in my last attempt at this exam that they have designed an exam that is too long to complete in the time provided. I spent a great deal of time preparing and wished to demonstrate this fact in the exam. I know this subject very well now but after the high failure rate of April 18 it looks like they have followed up with a paper that was too long to be completed in the time provided. I expect that most of the candidates will be better prepared than the norm too so I am preparing for the worst now.

    It would be fairer if those that don’t make the pass list this time are allowed to repeat this exam again rather than losing the work done on this exam and their previous pass in CT6 in addition. It all seems very unfair to me ☹
     
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  17. almost_there

    almost_there Member

    I like that suggestion very much.
     
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  18. GemmaHayes

    GemmaHayes Member

    Thanks. It's highly unlikely to be taken up unfortunately however :(

    The new syllabus seems to be unfair to older candidates in particular who may have got bogged down with CA3 etc in particular and now risk the potential to lose another subject for not concentrating entirely on CTs after the announcement of new syllabus.

    For CT4 September sitting I still feel very annoyed that they have set the longest paper in recent history on the last paper. I guess success or failure will now boil down to who was quickest on the day rather than knowledge of the subject for most borderline cases. I guess venting about the IFOA won't change this reality! They can do as they wish but it all leaves a sour taste :(
     
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  19. almost_there

    almost_there Member

    The issue is not even being discussed by IFoA Council, FRC/IFoA meetings, student consultative forum... :eek:
     
  20. almost_there

    almost_there Member

    http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10021710/1/150390.pdf
    Page 57:
    Kennedy et al (1984), while concentrating on the needs of the profession, noted that most of the submissions received from members concerned the professional examinations: "There was a general feeling that the examinations were unduly hard and a recurring theme was the over-emphasis on time pressure in the examination room." (Kennedy et al, 1984, p6)
     
  21. GemmaHayes

    GemmaHayes Member

    I hope for the best that they will do a good job and review this sitting correctly taking into account the time constraints and high standard of candidates for the last sitting rather than assume that all the fault for time pressure is due to the students poor exam technique! Time will tell I guess.

    Also, I think some people need to be wary of how high they feel they are on their pedestal that they don't fall off. Perspective seems to be the biggest blind spot of the perspective actuaries I've met ;)
     

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