S15 seems to use P(20000-10000S5 > t) = 0.05 whereas A15 uses P(X<t)=0.05 I've tried to verify the 2 answers using P(X<-t) = 0.05 for both and it works for A15 but not S15. Can someone explain to me why?
I'd just looked at the mark scheme for S15 and it says we can do it both ways, either the 95% or 5%. Can someone explain why the values differ here?
The interpretation of S15 Q5(iii)(b) that is consistent with the Course Notes is to think that there’s a 95% chance that the value of the shareholding at time 5 will be no more than €12,851 below the “target value” of €20,000. In other words, there’s a 95% chance that the value of the shareholding at time 5 will exceed €7,149. The examiners at the time also allowed for the “95% Value at Risk” to be interpreted as there being a 95% probability (as opposed to a 5% probability) of any loss being worse than x. This is a highly unusual "risk measure" to calculate. Historically if an exam question is set where an ambiguity/confusion could be settled by the Examiners stating that a mistake was made in the question setting, it usually turns out that no mistake was made but instead it was a matter of interpretation. The important point for you is that we learn to always state our interpretation of an (arguably ambiguous) question and proceed accordingly - cover yourself on exam day, basically, Good luck! John
