Ruin Theory Sept 2019

Discussion in 'CM2' started by Jia Syuen, Aug 15, 2021.

  1. Jia Syuen

    Jia Syuen Very Active Member

    For the question 10i)

    In the examiner report, it states that
    P(two claims) = 45 x 0.12 x 0.98 = 0.1937

    May I know what is the '45' in this equation? Thanks in advance.
     
  2. Steve Hales

    Steve Hales ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi
    That's the number of combinations of any two policies claiming out of a portfolio of 10 policies. In Excel this would be:
    =COMBIN(10,2)
     
  3. AKS01

    AKS01 Very Active Member

    Hi Steve,

    How do we know to use the binomial distribution to calculate the probability?
     
  4. Steve Hales

    Steve Hales ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    When there's a probability of success, p, and an experiment is run n times, the number of successes follows a binomial distribution binom(n,p) by definition.
     
    AKS01 likes this.

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