Expectation Theory

Discussion in 'CS2' started by Actuary_11, Sep 10, 2021.

  1. Actuary_11

    Actuary_11 Member

    In the Chapter of Mortality Projection
    Methods Based on Expectation , page no. 4 , section 1

    What is the relationship between alpha_x and f_n,x in Mortality Projection
    Like when alpha_x increase , then f_n,x decrease ....and vice versa , so what is the relation between them.
    Here we know that alpha_x is the maximum possible reduction in the mortality rate and f_n,x is the total decline expected to be occur in n years .
     
  2. Dave Johnson

    Dave Johnson ActEd Tutor Staff Member

    Hi

    alpha and f model two different components of the mortality projection:

    f is a reduction factor, (eg 5% per annum) so the reduction factor would be 0.95 after one year, 0.95^2 after two years, etc.

    The problem with this is that the reduction factor will tend to zero as time increases, which might be too optimistic. To fix this we use the alpha factor to split the reduction factor into a reducing part and a constant part. This means that the reduction factor tends to alpha as t increases. We might choose alpha to be something like 60% if we feel like this is the maximum possible reduction in mortality for this particular cause.

    Hope that helps

    Dave
     
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  3. Actuary_11

    Actuary_11 Member

    Got it thanks !
     

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