Query in understanding upper confidence limit Q11 of IFoA April 2011 (iii)

Discussion in 'CT6' started by Chandrima, Jun 29, 2017.

  1. Chandrima

    Chandrima Member

    Please ref. to Q11 of IFoA April 2011 (iii) part. I think this "2.3263" is coming from normal table. Can anyone kindly help me to understand why they are taking e^(mu+sigma*2.3263)? Is it because of log-normal and they have asked us to find the upper limit? In case they had asked us to find the lower limit, we had to do e^(mu-sigma*2.3263) right??? Please help me to understand this.

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    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 30, 2017
  2. 1)yes its coming from normal table.
    2)As u see in i)dev factors(df) follows log normal,log(df)~N(meu,sigma).So mean of log(df) is e^(mu+sigma*2.323)
    3)yes,for lower limit we use minus.
     
    John Lee and Chandrima like this.
  3. Chandrima

    Chandrima Member

    Varsha, thank you so much! Can you please help me with the other query I posted yesterday? I am confused to see that for both "incurred claims" and "paid claims" they are sometimes using same solution techniques - why?
     

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