Here is the Professor showing off a binomial GLM (logit): http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2014/revealed-how-england-can-win-3616466 http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/may/28/stephen-hawking-formulae-england-world-cup-success I hope actuaries (especially GI personal line pricing) can identify it...it's in CT6
Even Hawking's genius can't save England in the world cup. They need miracles from entities Hawking does not believe in...such as the flying spaghetti monster, parmesan be upon him.
Mmm. I have to admit I struggle to see why a logit regression is a better choice than a few thousand rounds of stochastic simulation using current bookie's odds (which is how I've done my office's pool).
