So I can use the formulas

Skew(S) =λE(X^3) and

Coeff(S) = Skew(S)/(V(S)^1.5)

if N is ~ Po(λ).

What are the formulas when N is not ~ Poisson? I'm sure I've missed it but yeah I can't find it anywhere. I also tried Ask Jeeves but no luck.]]>

I was wondering why "changes between historical and current period" was not included as one of the reasons that create data quality problems in the answer/marking scheme as Historical data becomes irrelevant due to changes such as changes in Claims handling, Underwriting practice, Regulation change, significant change in business mix, socio-economic environment, etc.

Thanks in...

2017 Sep Q3]]>

1. From

2. In Section 4.2, we saw the ISO's approach to derive ILFs (pg 29) using closed claims. However, it was mentioned in pg 28 that it is not appropriate to ignore open claims. Does the ISO's approach take this into account somehow?

3. In the last...

Original Loss Curves]]>

I hope you are well.

Please may I check with you on trending.

I am confused by what

for examples:

- Inflation (Wage, court)
- Nature of risk (annual or multiple trips)
- Coverage (excess, limits)...

Trending]]>

The answer key wrote: Degree of freedom = number of levels in factor - 1

However, per core reading, the degree of freedom should be the difference of all levels of all factors between the 2 models (one with and one without Marital Status rating factor), which in this case is just the number of levels of Marital Status (7). Or do we not count the Unknown level?

Thank you in advance ]]>

(b) Premium £3,500. Commission 10%. Started 1 July 2018. Risk starts at zero and increases daily by a constant linear amount over the policy year.

Can someone explain how to solve this ?

solution given - £2,362.50 (75% of risk is outstanding at year-end, so the UPR is 75% of 90% of £3,500. Did not understand how 0.75 came ?]]>

Hope you are well.

Please can I check my understanding of how to avoid plagiarism for the SP8 and SP7 exams:

I am reading the student handbook here: pg 14- pg 16

Examination Handbook April 2022.pdf (actuaries.org.uk)

My doubts are:

- I may be completely wrong, but the handbook seems to suggest we are not allow to use any study materials to answer the exam,...

How to avoid plagiarism for the SP8 and SP7 exams]]>

Hope you are well.

Please can I confirm when we account for inflation for ILF

- that we count number of years of inflation from current ILF date to the new policy commencement date (NOT the claims payment date) for which the new ILF would be applicable?

- eg 2015 Sept. Q2, here inflation is counted from 1st Jan 2012 (when ILF was used for) to 1st Oct 2015 (contract that commences on 1 October 2015.)
- eg 2010 April Q5, here we assumed mid policy year...

ILF with inflation]]>

Hope you are well.

May I ask how per policy expense is calculated please?

We know - Per policy expenses are initially £1 per month throughout the life of the policy.

1 Information on the per-policy expense is not very clear. Assume: £1 at 01/01/21, inflating at 1%

per month. For contracts starting 01/07/21, the starting amount is increased by 6 months of

inflation. So the present value of these...

X3 Assignment X3.6 & past paper 201304 Q9]]>

I find this question very confusing at the set up

Solution sets out N|

I get N the number of claims are being told to be Binomial

But i am confused with this set up : ie ' N with parameter Phi follows a binomial distribution with parameters n = 3 and p = Theta

The parameter Phi has the pdf .... which involves Theta....

April 2019 Q6]]>

I hope you are well

Have you seen/are there any question on calculating Bühlmann-Straub risk premium on multiple risks ?

I have only seen questions on single risk - ie one portfolio, like page 39 of CH18 in past papers so far, while the formulae are set up for risk i (eg Xi=Si/Vi, represents the claims ratio for risk i), I thought we may get asked to find risk premium for risk 1,2,3,4, etc in the exam. Or may be there is no such expectation by examiner?

Thanks!

Jun]]>

April 2017 Q10i]]>

Specifically following the example in the CMP for the Poisson case (the Premium Bonds question). I thought it was your options of win so you'd have j=50 or 100. So for P(S=100) you have 2 options, either you have won 50 on 2 bonds or you have won £100 on one bond and nothing on any others. But then this logic didn't follow...

Panjer Recursion (Ch11)]]>

In Unit 16 Generalized linear models & multivariate modelling, section 2.1, I am struggling to figure out how the predicted values were calculated for table 18.2.3, e.g. Old is 1.6, Low is 2.4 etc. Please can someone explain this table and the calculations behind it?

Hopefully a simple question that someone can help quickly as I am only referring to core reading!

Many thanks in advance!]]>

on page 22-23 of Chapter 20 the problem of missing claims for earlier years in case of constant reporting threshold is discussed. I seem to grasp the issue, but I am not sure to understand the remedy from Core Reading. It is said that:

"to overcome this, the reinsurer will need to restate the threshold for all but the most recent years in the data. Using the same claims inflation rates as were used to trend the losses, the reinsurer will also inflate the threshold year by year, so...

Inflating the threshold in RI pricing]]>

A quick question from me about trending individual losses to be representative of the period on which the new rates will apply, and also developing losses to an ultimate position.

If we inflate the historic losses, and also apply a development pattern to them, is there not a risk that inflation is being double counted for? If we assume a constant rate of inflation in the past and in the future, then when we develop our losses with our development pattern would this not account for...

Developing & Inflating Individual Losses]]>

Online Classroom vs Course Notes]]>